10 Year Report for the Northwest Forest Plan
This website provides links to the 10-year report summarizing the scientific assessment of the status and trends of late-successional and old-growth forests (also called "older forests") between 1994 and 2003 on federal lands affected by the Northwest Forest Plan.
Marbled Murrelet Effectiveness Monitoring Team (Huff, Mark H., Tech. Coord.).2005. Northwest Forest Plan--The First 10 Years (1994-2003): Status and Trend of Populations and Nesting Habitat for the Marbled Murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. PNW-GTR-XXX. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station. 5 chapters.
The Northwest Forest Plan is a large-scale ecosystem management plan for Federal lands in the Pacific Northwest. Marbled Murrelet (Brachyramphus marmoratus) populations and habitat were monitored to evaluate effectiveness of the Plan. The chapters in this volume summarize information on Marbled Murrelet ecology and present the monitoring results for Marbled Murrelets over the first 10 years of the Plan, 1994 to 2003. The Marbled Murrelet was Federally listed in 1992 as threatened in Washington, Oregon, and California. The Plan identified the Marbled Murrelet as a major objective in the Plan design and hence the status of the murrelet is a key indicator of the Plan’s potential success. Effectiveness monitoring for the Marbled Murrelet has two facets: (1) assess population trends at sea using a unified sampling design and standardized survey methods and (2) establish a credible estimate of baseline nesting-habitat data by modeling habitat relations, and use the baseline to track habitat changes over time. Our primary monitoring objective was to determine the status and trend of Marbled Murrelet populations and nesting habitat in the Plan area.
To estimate Marbled Murrelet population size, we sampled from boats using line transects within 8 km of the Washington, Oregon, and northern California coastline, covering ~8,800 km2. From 2000-2003, the largest population estimate was in the Puget Sound and Strait of Juan de Fuca of Washington; the highest densities were along the coast of Oregon and California, north of the Humboldt-Mendocino county line, and the smallest population and lowest density were from the Humboldt-Mendocino county line south ~200 mi to San Francisco Bay, California.. Marbled Murrelet population estimates did not change significantly over 4 years. We estimated that 15 or 9 total years of surveys will be needed to detect a 2% or 5% annual decrease, respectively, with 95% power. We used three modeling approaches to estimate the amount and distribution of baseline nesting habitat: expert judgment, ecological niche factor analysis, and logistic regression. Estimates of amounts of baseline nesting habitat varied with the model used, but all models showed that over 80 percent of baseline habitat on federally-administered lands occurred in reserved lands. A high proportion of baseline habitat occurred on non-federal lands; amounts of non-federal habitat varied among provinces. Fire and harvest have led to losses of nesting habitat since the Plan was implemented, with higher rates of loss on non-federal lands. We compare the efficacies of the different model approaches and discuss implications of our results for future monitoring.
Keywords: Marbled Murrelet, monitoring, population, trends, habitat modeling, nesting habitat, Northwest Forest Plan
- Northwest Forest Plan The First Ten Years (1994-2003):
Status and Trends of Marbled Murrelet (PDF, 3.88 MB)
- Blind Peer Review Reconciliation:
Huff, M.H., ed. [In press]. Northwest Forest Plan: the first ten years (1994-2003): status and tend of populations and nesting habitat for the marbled murrelet. Gen. Tech. Rep. Portland, OR: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.
|Mark Huff - Fish and Wildlife Service||Population Status and Habitat Modeling of Marbled Murrelet||PPT, 30 MB|
|Sherri L. Miller - US Forest Service, PSW Research||At-sea Monitoring of Marbled Murrelet Population Status Trends in the Northwest Forest Plan area.||PDF, 766 kb|
|Mark Huff - Fish & Wildlife Service||Monitoring Marbled Murrelet Nesting Habitat on Federal Lands Using a Systematic Grid Sampling||PDF, 3.9 MB|